Serkan Bayar

I am a doctoral researcher studying how anthropogenic climate change influences weather and climate extremes, with a current focus on quantifying uncertainty in storyline attribution.

As extreme event attribution moves towards impact assessment, storyline approaches are increasingly used to isolate the thermodynamic influence of climate change by conditioning on the observed large-scale circulation. However, most storyline studies rely on a single model and a single method, leaving it unclear how strongly their conclusions depend on these choices.

My PhD aims to address this open question using a range of climate models and attribution methods. In the first phase, I work with an ensemble of spectrally nudged storyline simulations to assess how robust single-model attribution statements are and to identify when multi-model approaches are needed.

I am part of the Compound Climate Extremes group, led by Dr. Emanuele Bevacqua.

Research interests

• Compound climate extremes
• Storyline approaches to extreme event attribution
• Future climate risk projection
• Climate model evaluation and uncertainty quantification

Earlier Publications

• Bayar, A. S., Yılmaz, M. T., Yücel, İ., & Dirmeyer, P. (2023):
  CMIP6 Earth system models project greater acceleration of climate zone change due to stronger warming rates. 
  Earth's Future, 11, e2022EF002972. 
  10.1029/2022EF002972